
數(shù)十年來,進(jìn)入大型科技公司擔(dān)任軟件工程師,就意味著擁有穩(wěn)定職業(yè)與六位數(shù)的起薪。但這位引發(fā)硅谷震動的人工智能工具開發(fā)者表示,這一崗位可能在今年年底前消失。
一年前面世的Claude Code,已經(jīng)被軟件工程師廣泛使用,并徹底改變了他們的工作模式。這款工具比傳統(tǒng)的借助聊天機(jī)器人進(jìn)行氛圍編程更為先進(jìn):它是代理式人工智能,只需要極少人工干預(yù),就能夠自主完成各項任務(wù)。一位谷歌(Google)資深工程師稱,該工具一小時就可以完成原本需要一整年才能完成的工作。其開發(fā)者鮑里斯·切爾尼認(rèn)為,程序員將迎來不可避免的變革。
切爾尼最近在萊尼·拉奇特斯基主持的《萊尼播客》(Lenny’s Podcast)節(jié)目中說:“我認(rèn)為到今年年底,人人都會成為產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理,人人都會編程?!浖こ處煛@一頭銜將逐漸消失,取而代之的將是‘開發(fā)者’,而這會讓很多人經(jīng)歷陣痛。”
切爾尼深有體會,部分原因在于過去數(shù)月間,Claude Code已經(jīng)能夠完成全部編碼工作。這款工具最初只是他在Anthropic公司類似貝爾實驗室(Bell Labs)的實驗部門工作時進(jìn)行的一個副業(yè)項目。在公開發(fā)布前,該工具已經(jīng)在內(nèi)部工程師中迅速普及。
“自去年11月以來,我再也沒有手動編輯過一行代碼?!彼硎?,同時解釋自己仍然會檢查代碼?!拔艺J(rèn)為我們還沒有到完全放手的地步,尤其是在大量用戶運(yùn)行該程序的情況下。你必須確保代碼準(zhǔn)確無誤、安全可靠?!?/p>
切爾尼預(yù)測,到今年年底,許多其他公司和程序員也會讓Claude編寫所有代碼。本月初,Anthropic公司發(fā)布了Cowork——這款面向非程序員、操作更友好的編碼產(chǎn)品迭代版本,能夠自主執(zhí)行操作。這項技術(shù)尤其擅長處理日常管理和組織任務(wù),切爾尼在1月接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,在團(tuán)隊成員未更新共享電子表格時,他會用這款工具自動在Slack上給對方發(fā)送提醒消息。
切爾尼稱Claude Code或?qū)⒊蔀橄乱粋€印刷術(shù)
切爾尼指出,使用Claude Code時工程師仍然需要理解底層原理,但“一到兩年后,這一點也將不再重要”。
他將軟件工程師對人工智能的應(yīng)用比作抄寫員與印刷機(jī)的關(guān)系。切爾尼解釋道,印刷術(shù)發(fā)明之前,抄寫員就是負(fù)責(zé)讀寫的人群,僅占人口極小比例。他援引一份未具名的“歷史文獻(xiàn)”中對抄寫員的訪談稱,隨著越來越多人學(xué)會讀寫,抄寫員不再需要耗費(fèi)大量時間手抄書籍,使得他們可以把精力投入到自己更感興趣的事情上,比如書籍裝訂或繪制插圖。
在近期科技顛覆浪潮中,另一位硅谷人物馬克·扎克伯格也鐘愛印刷術(shù)的比喻,他將社交媒體對其他媒體的顛覆,比作印刷術(shù)的誕生對傳統(tǒng)傳播方式的沖擊。
多年來,扎克伯格反復(fù)提及這一比喻。媒體理論家和歷史學(xué)家指出,印刷術(shù)的誕生,不僅極大地動搖了宗教與政治權(quán)威,也催生了宣傳造勢和“假新聞”的新時代,新教改革、天主教會的長期衰落,便是這一變革帶來的標(biāo)志性結(jié)果。可以說,世界還在消化社交媒體革命帶來的余波,而另一項堪比印刷術(shù)的顛覆性發(fā)明,已然來到我們面前。
自稱“高產(chǎn)程序員”的切爾尼表示,Claude為他騰出了大量時間,讓他能夠?qū)W⒂诠ぷ髦凶约鹤钕硎艿牟糠帧?/p>
他說:“我現(xiàn)在的感受就是,再也不必做那些枯燥乏味的編程工作了。工作中最有樂趣的部分,是明確要打造什么產(chǎn)品、提出創(chuàng)意、與用戶交流、思考這些龐大的系統(tǒng)、暢想行業(yè)未來,與團(tuán)隊成員協(xié)作——而現(xiàn)在我能更多地投入這些工作?!?/p>
計算機(jī)相關(guān)崗位的全面變革
切爾尼預(yù)測,借助Cowork這類工具,人工智能將拓展到“幾乎所有可以在計算機(jī)上完成的工作”。
“現(xiàn)在回想一年前的工程開發(fā)工作,當(dāng)時根本沒有人真正知道什么是智能體,也沒有人真正使用過?!彼f,“但如今,這已經(jīng)成為我們開展工作的常規(guī)方式。”
隨著Claude接入Google Docs、電子郵件和Slack,半技術(shù)與非技術(shù)性崗位也正在迎來同樣的變革。當(dāng)被問及如何在顛覆性變革中脫穎而出時,切爾尼給出建議。
“要試用這些工具,了解它們,不要畏懼它們。只管投身其中、大膽嘗試,站在技術(shù)前沿,勇于探索。”他說道。
切爾尼還建議各領(lǐng)域從業(yè)者向通才方向發(fā)展。他解釋道,Claude Code團(tuán)隊從產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理到財務(wù)人員都掌握編程技能,而頂尖工程師往往兼具設(shè)計、底層架構(gòu)或商業(yè)領(lǐng)域的專長。
“我認(rèn)為未來幾年獲益最多的人群,不只是人工智能時代的原住民,也不只是能熟練運(yùn)用這些工具的人,更是那些擁有好奇心、具備通才特質(zhì),可以夠跨多學(xué)科領(lǐng)域,從更宏觀的角度思考要解決的問題,而非只盯著工程開發(fā)環(huán)節(jié)的人。”
鑒于人工智能體可能引發(fā)大規(guī)模就業(yè)震蕩,切爾尼重申了Anthropic公司管理層一貫的立場。他表示,這項技術(shù)對未來的影響“不應(yīng)由我們決定”,社會需要就工作未來展開更廣泛的討論。
切爾尼補(bǔ)充道,Anthropic公司“高度重視”這項技術(shù)可能帶來的顛覆性影響,已經(jīng)聘請經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及政策與社會影響專家評估該技術(shù)。
盡管如此,和其他人工智能公司一樣,Anthropic公司并未表明將放緩技術(shù)快速迭代的步伐,且計劃今年啟動首次公開募股。
“我認(rèn)為在此期間,技術(shù)變革將帶來巨大顛覆,許多人將經(jīng)歷陣痛。”切爾尼坦言。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
數(shù)十年來,進(jìn)入大型科技公司擔(dān)任軟件工程師,就意味著擁有穩(wěn)定職業(yè)與六位數(shù)的起薪。但這位引發(fā)硅谷震動的人工智能工具開發(fā)者表示,這一崗位可能在今年年底前消失。
一年前面世的Claude Code,已經(jīng)被軟件工程師廣泛使用,并徹底改變了他們的工作模式。這款工具比傳統(tǒng)的借助聊天機(jī)器人進(jìn)行氛圍編程更為先進(jìn):它是代理式人工智能,只需要極少人工干預(yù),就能夠自主完成各項任務(wù)。一位谷歌(Google)資深工程師稱,該工具一小時就可以完成原本需要一整年才能完成的工作。其開發(fā)者鮑里斯·切爾尼認(rèn)為,程序員將迎來不可避免的變革。
切爾尼最近在萊尼·拉奇特斯基主持的《萊尼播客》(Lenny’s Podcast)節(jié)目中說:“我認(rèn)為到今年年底,人人都會成為產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理,人人都會編程?!浖こ處煛@一頭銜將逐漸消失,取而代之的將是‘開發(fā)者’,而這會讓很多人經(jīng)歷陣痛?!?/p>
切爾尼深有體會,部分原因在于過去數(shù)月間,Claude Code已經(jīng)能夠完成全部編碼工作。這款工具最初只是他在Anthropic公司類似貝爾實驗室(Bell Labs)的實驗部門工作時進(jìn)行的一個副業(yè)項目。在公開發(fā)布前,該工具已經(jīng)在內(nèi)部工程師中迅速普及。
“自去年11月以來,我再也沒有手動編輯過一行代碼?!彼硎荆瑫r解釋自己仍然會檢查代碼。“我認(rèn)為我們還沒有到完全放手的地步,尤其是在大量用戶運(yùn)行該程序的情況下。你必須確保代碼準(zhǔn)確無誤、安全可靠。”
切爾尼預(yù)測,到今年年底,許多其他公司和程序員也會讓Claude編寫所有代碼。本月初,Anthropic公司發(fā)布了Cowork——這款面向非程序員、操作更友好的編碼產(chǎn)品迭代版本,能夠自主執(zhí)行操作。這項技術(shù)尤其擅長處理日常管理和組織任務(wù),切爾尼在1月接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,在團(tuán)隊成員未更新共享電子表格時,他會用這款工具自動在Slack上給對方發(fā)送提醒消息。
切爾尼稱Claude Code或?qū)⒊蔀橄乱粋€印刷術(shù)
切爾尼指出,使用Claude Code時工程師仍然需要理解底層原理,但“一到兩年后,這一點也將不再重要”。
他將軟件工程師對人工智能的應(yīng)用比作抄寫員與印刷機(jī)的關(guān)系。切爾尼解釋道,印刷術(shù)發(fā)明之前,抄寫員就是負(fù)責(zé)讀寫的人群,僅占人口極小比例。他援引一份未具名的“歷史文獻(xiàn)”中對抄寫員的訪談稱,隨著越來越多人學(xué)會讀寫,抄寫員不再需要耗費(fèi)大量時間手抄書籍,使得他們可以把精力投入到自己更感興趣的事情上,比如書籍裝訂或繪制插圖。
在近期科技顛覆浪潮中,另一位硅谷人物馬克·扎克伯格也鐘愛印刷術(shù)的比喻,他將社交媒體對其他媒體的顛覆,比作印刷術(shù)的誕生對傳統(tǒng)傳播方式的沖擊。
多年來,扎克伯格反復(fù)提及這一比喻。媒體理論家和歷史學(xué)家指出,印刷術(shù)的誕生,不僅極大地動搖了宗教與政治權(quán)威,也催生了宣傳造勢和“假新聞”的新時代,新教改革、天主教會的長期衰落,便是這一變革帶來的標(biāo)志性結(jié)果??梢哉f,世界還在消化社交媒體革命帶來的余波,而另一項堪比印刷術(shù)的顛覆性發(fā)明,已然來到我們面前。
自稱“高產(chǎn)程序員”的切爾尼表示,Claude為他騰出了大量時間,讓他能夠?qū)W⒂诠ぷ髦凶约鹤钕硎艿牟糠帧?/p>
他說:“我現(xiàn)在的感受就是,再也不必做那些枯燥乏味的編程工作了。工作中最有樂趣的部分,是明確要打造什么產(chǎn)品、提出創(chuàng)意、與用戶交流、思考這些龐大的系統(tǒng)、暢想行業(yè)未來,與團(tuán)隊成員協(xié)作——而現(xiàn)在我能更多地投入這些工作?!?/p>
計算機(jī)相關(guān)崗位的全面變革
切爾尼預(yù)測,借助Cowork這類工具,人工智能將拓展到“幾乎所有可以在計算機(jī)上完成的工作”。
“現(xiàn)在回想一年前的工程開發(fā)工作,當(dāng)時根本沒有人真正知道什么是智能體,也沒有人真正使用過?!彼f,“但如今,這已經(jīng)成為我們開展工作的常規(guī)方式?!?/p>
隨著Claude接入Google Docs、電子郵件和Slack,半技術(shù)與非技術(shù)性崗位也正在迎來同樣的變革。當(dāng)被問及如何在顛覆性變革中脫穎而出時,切爾尼給出建議。
“要試用這些工具,了解它們,不要畏懼它們。只管投身其中、大膽嘗試,站在技術(shù)前沿,勇于探索。”他說道。
切爾尼還建議各領(lǐng)域從業(yè)者向通才方向發(fā)展。他解釋道,Claude Code團(tuán)隊從產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理到財務(wù)人員都掌握編程技能,而頂尖工程師往往兼具設(shè)計、底層架構(gòu)或商業(yè)領(lǐng)域的專長。
“我認(rèn)為未來幾年獲益最多的人群,不只是人工智能時代的原住民,也不只是能熟練運(yùn)用這些工具的人,更是那些擁有好奇心、具備通才特質(zhì),可以夠跨多學(xué)科領(lǐng)域,從更宏觀的角度思考要解決的問題,而非只盯著工程開發(fā)環(huán)節(jié)的人。”
鑒于人工智能體可能引發(fā)大規(guī)模就業(yè)震蕩,切爾尼重申了Anthropic公司管理層一貫的立場。他表示,這項技術(shù)對未來的影響“不應(yīng)由我們決定”,社會需要就工作未來展開更廣泛的討論。
切爾尼補(bǔ)充道,Anthropic公司“高度重視”這項技術(shù)可能帶來的顛覆性影響,已經(jīng)聘請經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及政策與社會影響專家評估該技術(shù)。
盡管如此,和其他人工智能公司一樣,Anthropic公司并未表明將放緩技術(shù)快速迭代的步伐,且計劃今年啟動首次公開募股。
“我認(rèn)為在此期間,技術(shù)變革將帶來巨大顛覆,許多人將經(jīng)歷陣痛。”切爾尼坦言。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
For decades, a Big Tech career in software engineering promised a stable job and a six-figure starting salary. Now that job title could be gone by the end of this year, according to the man who created the artificial intelligence (AI) tool that is sending convulsions through the Valley.
Claude Code, which was released a year ago, has been widely adopted by software engineers and revolutionized how they approach their work. The tool is more sophisticated than traditional vibe coding with a chatbot. Rather it’s agentic, meaning it can autonomously execute tasks with minimal human intervention. One senior Google engineer said it re-created a year’s worth of work in an hour. Its creator, Boris Cherny, sees an inevitable change coming for coders.
“I think by the end of the year, everyone is going to be a product manager, and everyone codes. The title software engineer is going to start to go away,” Cherny said recently on an episode of Lenny’s Podcast, hosted by Lenny Rachitsky. “It’s just going to be replaced by ‘builder,’ and it’s going to be painful for a lot of people.”
Cherny knows this in part because Claude Code has written 100% of his code for months. Originally designed as a side project, Cherny developed Claude Code while working in Anthropic’s Bell Labs–style experimental division. The tool was quickly adopted by engineers internally before it was released to the public.
“I have not edited a single line by hand since November,” he said, explaining that he still checks the code. “I don’t think we’re at the point where you can be totally hands-off, especially when there’s a lot of people running the program. You have to make sure that it’s correct. You have to make sure it’s safe.”
Cherny predicts that many other companies and coders will have Claude write all of their code by the end of this year, too. Earlier this month, Anthropic released Cowork, a more user-friendly version of the coding product for non-coders that can take autonomous action. The technology is particularly adept at daily management and organization tasks, and Cherny told Fortune last month that he uses it to automatically message team members on Slack when they haven’t updated shared spreadsheets.
Claude Code could be the next printing press, Cherny says
With Claude Code, Cherny says that engineers still have to understand the underlying principles, but “in a year or two, it’s not going to matter.”
He compared software engineering and AI adoption to scribes and the printing press. Before printing, scribes were the people who read and wrote and were only a small percentage of the population, he explained. As more people learned to read and write, scribes spent less time copying books by hand, which allowed them to spend time doing things they were more interested in, like bookbinding or drawing art in books, he said, citing an unnamed “historical document” of an interview with a scribe.
The printing press metaphor was beloved in a recent era of tech disruption by another Silicon Valley figure: Mark Zuckerberg, who likened social media’s disruption of other media to the creation of print.
Zuckerberg has repeatedly returned to this metaphor through the years, while media theorists and historians have noted that the printing press was a major development in undermining religious and political authorities while also giving rise to a new era of propaganda and “fake news.” The Protestant Reformation and the long-term decline of the Catholic Church was a famous byproduct. Arguably, the world is still digesting the aftershocks of the social media revolution before a new printing-press-like invention is upon us.
A self-described “prolific coder,” Cherny said Claude has freed up a lot of time for him to focus on the parts of his job he enjoys most.
“This is how I feel where I don’t have to do the tedious work anymore of coding,” he said. “The fun part is figuring out what to build, and coming up with this. It’s talking to users. It’s thinking about these big systems. It’s thinking about the future. It’s collaborating with other people on the team, and that’s what I get to do more of now.”
A shift for all computer-based jobs
Cherny predicted that AI will expand “to pretty much any kind of work that you can do on a computer,” with tools like Cowork.
“When I think back to engineering a year ago, no one really knew what an agent was, no one really used it,” he said. “But nowadays it’s just the way that we do our work,” he said.
The same shift is happening with semi- and non-technical jobs now that Claude can interact with Google Docs, email, and Slack, he said. When asked about how to succeed during this moment of disruption, Cherny offered some advice.
“Experiment with the tools, get to know them, don’t be scared of them. Just dive in, try them, be on the bleeding edge, be on the frontier,” he said.
He also recommends that people across all fields become more generalists. Everyone on Claude Code’s team codes, from the product manager to the finance guy, he explained, and the strongest engineers also have an aptitude for design, infrastructure, or business.
“I think a lot of the people that will be rewarded the most over the next few years, they won’t just be AI native, and they don’t just know how to use these tools really well, but also they’re curious and they’re generalists, and they cross over multiple disciplines and can think about the broader problem they’re solving rather than just the engineering part of it, he said.
With the scale of potential job disruption AI agents could cause, Cherny repeated a common refrain used by Anthropic leaders. He said that the future implications of the technology “shouldn’t be up to us,” and that society needs to have a larger conversation about the future of work.
Anthropic takes the disruption “very, very seriously,” Cherny added, and employs economists and policy and social impact experts to assess the technology.
Still, like other AI companies, Anthropic has not indicated that it intends to slow the pace of rapidly changing technology, as it plans an initial public offering this year.
“I do think in the meantime, it’s going to be very disruptive, and it’s going to be painful for a lot of people,” Cherny said.