
研究表明,許多美國人難以準確判斷哪些個人決策對氣候變化的影響最大。
美國國家科學院(National Academy of Sciences)近期發布的一項研究發現,當被要求對各類行為進行排序時,如將燃油車換成電動車、拼車或減少食物浪費等,受訪者對這些行為的氣候影響評估普遍失準。燃燒汽油、石油和煤炭釋放的溫室氣體是導致氣候變化的主要原因。
報告合著者、斯坦福大學(Stanford University)環境社會科學教授瑪達琳娜·弗拉塞亞努指出:“人們會高估一些實際上碳排放影響很小的行為,比如回收利用;而低估那些實際碳排放強度高得多的行為,比如乘飛機或吃肉?!?/p>
對氣候最有益的三大個人行為,包括避免乘飛機、不養狗以及使用可再生電力,恰恰是最被受訪者低估的三項。而對氣候變化影響最小的行為分別是更換更節能的家電和燈泡、回收利用以及在洗衣時減少能耗等。這是報告中最被高估的四種行為中的三種。
認知偏差的根源
弗拉塞亞努表示,營銷宣傳更側重于回收利用與使用節能燈泡,卻回避為何乘飛機或養狗對氣候有相對負面的影響,導致受訪者更有可能高估這些行為。
人腦的認知機制也是影響因素之一。
不列顛哥倫比亞大學(University of British Columbia)心理學與可持續發展教授趙佳瑩(音譯)表示:“你能看到瓶子被回收利用的過程。這些是可見的行為。而碳排放卻是肉眼看不見的。因此人們不會將乘飛機與排放關聯起來?!?/p>
她補充說,高頻行為更易被記起。她表示:“回收利用幾乎是一種日常行為,但乘飛機卻并不頻繁,而且更少有人討論,因此公眾從心理上更看重回收利用這一行為?!?/p>
當然,還有大量誤導性信息。例如,有些企業宣揚其進行回收利用工作,卻隱瞞整體運營所產生的污染狀況。
非營利組織憂思科學家聯盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)的氣候專家布倫達·??宋譂蔂柋硎荆骸坝写罅啃钜庵圃斓母蓴_行為,其目的就是為了支持那些早己過時的政策?!?/p>
寵物狗為何會產生較大的氣候影響
狗是肉食動物,而肉類消費是導致氣候變化的重要因素。這是因為許多食用牲畜的養殖過程會釋放導致氣候變化的溫室氣體甲烷。牛肉的影響尤其嚴重,部分原因是世界各地的養牛場經常占用非法砍伐林地。樹木本可吸收二氧化碳(最主要的溫室氣體),伐林養牛會產生雙重影響。
趙佳瑩表示:“人們不會將寵物與碳排放關聯起來。在人們的腦海中,這兩者之間并沒有明確的關聯。”
然而并非所有寵物都會產生同樣的影響。趙佳瑩養了一條狗和三只兔子。
她表示:“養100只兔子的排放量也遠不及一條狗,因為狗是肉食動物?!?/p>
養肉食寵物的主人可選用除牛肉以外的食品減少氣候影響。趙佳瑩通過喂食海鮮、火雞等低碳強度蛋白,降低愛犬的碳足跡。
航空出行的污染
飛機排放大量二氧化碳與氮氧化物,這兩種氣體都屬于溫室氣體。此外,飛機產生的凝結尾跡或蒸汽尾跡還會阻隔溫室氣體散逸。根據聯合國國際民航組織(International Civil Aviation Organization)的數據,紐約至洛杉磯的737航班經濟艙往返行程,每位乘客產生逾1,300磅排放。
據聯合國估算,僅僅取消一趟航班減少的碳排放量,相當于全年禁食所有肉類或三個多月不使用汽車所減少的排放量。
其他決策的影響力
太陽能、風能等可再生能源不會排放溫室氣體,因此選擇使用這些能源具有巨大的積極影響。個人能夠做出的最重要的氣候決策包括住宅供暖制冷方式及交通方式選擇。轉為使用可再生能源可同時最大限度地減少這兩項決策的影響。
回收利用雖然能有效減少填埋垃圾,但其運輸、處理和回收物再利用環節往往依賴化石燃料,因此氣候影響相對較小。美國環保署(Environmental Protection Agency)的數據顯示,塑料實際回收利用率不足10%。
冷水洗衣、更換節能燈泡等影響力被高估的其他決策,重要性相對較小。因為相較于乘飛機與養狗等行為,這些家電的影響本就相對較小,雖然優化這些家電確實有益,但對碳排放的影響非常有限。
專家指出,要克服人類在氣候相關決策上的誤判傾向,最有效的方法就是提供更易獲取的信息。趙教授認為,由于獲取信息變得更容易,當今公眾判斷的準確性較一二十年前已經有所提升。
研究證實了這種假設。在受訪者完成對各種行為的排序后,研究人員糾正了他們的錯誤,然后受訪者改變了他們原本打算采取的環保行為。
弗拉塞亞努表示:“人們能從干預措施中有所收獲。經過學習之后,人們更愿意采取真正更高效的行動。”(財富中文網)
美聯社氣候與環境報道得到多家私人基金會的財務支持。美聯社對所有內容全權負責。歡迎登陸AP.org,查看美聯社與慈善機構合作的標準,以及支持者和資助報道領域列表。
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
研究表明,許多美國人難以準確判斷哪些個人決策對氣候變化的影響最大。
美國國家科學院(National Academy of Sciences)近期發布的一項研究發現,當被要求對各類行為進行排序時,如將燃油車換成電動車、拼車或減少食物浪費等,受訪者對這些行為的氣候影響評估普遍失準。燃燒汽油、石油和煤炭釋放的溫室氣體是導致氣候變化的主要原因。
報告合著者、斯坦福大學(Stanford University)環境社會科學教授瑪達琳娜·弗拉塞亞努指出:“人們會高估一些實際上碳排放影響很小的行為,比如回收利用;而低估那些實際碳排放強度高得多的行為,比如乘飛機或吃肉。”
對氣候最有益的三大個人行為,包括避免乘飛機、不養狗以及使用可再生電力,恰恰是最被受訪者低估的三項。而對氣候變化影響最小的行為分別是更換更節能的家電和燈泡、回收利用以及在洗衣時減少能耗等。這是報告中最被高估的四種行為中的三種。
認知偏差的根源
弗拉塞亞努表示,營銷宣傳更側重于回收利用與使用節能燈泡,卻回避為何乘飛機或養狗對氣候有相對負面的影響,導致受訪者更有可能高估這些行為。
人腦的認知機制也是影響因素之一。
不列顛哥倫比亞大學(University of British Columbia)心理學與可持續發展教授趙佳瑩(音譯)表示:“你能看到瓶子被回收利用的過程。這些是可見的行為。而碳排放卻是肉眼看不見的。因此人們不會將乘飛機與排放關聯起來。”
她補充說,高頻行為更易被記起。她表示:“回收利用幾乎是一種日常行為,但乘飛機卻并不頻繁,而且更少有人討論,因此公眾從心理上更看重回收利用這一行為。”
當然,還有大量誤導性信息。例如,有些企業宣揚其進行回收利用工作,卻隱瞞整體運營所產生的污染狀況。
非營利組織憂思科學家聯盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)的氣候專家布倫達·??宋譂蔂柋硎荆骸坝写罅啃钜庵圃斓母蓴_行為,其目的就是為了支持那些早己過時的政策?!?/p>
寵物狗為何會產生較大的氣候影響
狗是肉食動物,而肉類消費是導致氣候變化的重要因素。這是因為許多食用牲畜的養殖過程會釋放導致氣候變化的溫室氣體甲烷。牛肉的影響尤其嚴重,部分原因是世界各地的養牛場經常占用非法砍伐林地。樹木本可吸收二氧化碳(最主要的溫室氣體),伐林養牛會產生雙重影響。
趙佳瑩表示:“人們不會將寵物與碳排放關聯起來。在人們的腦海中,這兩者之間并沒有明確的關聯?!?/p>
然而并非所有寵物都會產生同樣的影響。趙佳瑩養了一條狗和三只兔子。
她表示:“養100只兔子的排放量也遠不及一條狗,因為狗是肉食動物?!?/p>
養肉食寵物的主人可選用除牛肉以外的食品減少氣候影響。趙佳瑩通過喂食海鮮、火雞等低碳強度蛋白,降低愛犬的碳足跡。
航空出行的污染
飛機排放大量二氧化碳與氮氧化物,這兩種氣體都屬于溫室氣體。此外,飛機產生的凝結尾跡或蒸汽尾跡還會阻隔溫室氣體散逸。根據聯合國國際民航組織(International Civil Aviation Organization)的數據,紐約至洛杉磯的737航班經濟艙往返行程,每位乘客產生逾1,300磅排放。
據聯合國估算,僅僅取消一趟航班減少的碳排放量,相當于全年禁食所有肉類或三個多月不使用汽車所減少的排放量。
其他決策的影響力
太陽能、風能等可再生能源不會排放溫室氣體,因此選擇使用這些能源具有巨大的積極影響。個人能夠做出的最重要的氣候決策包括住宅供暖制冷方式及交通方式選擇。轉為使用可再生能源可同時最大限度地減少這兩項決策的影響。
回收利用雖然能有效減少填埋垃圾,但其運輸、處理和回收物再利用環節往往依賴化石燃料,因此氣候影響相對較小。美國環保署(Environmental Protection Agency)的數據顯示,塑料實際回收利用率不足10%。
冷水洗衣、更換節能燈泡等影響力被高估的其他決策,重要性相對較小。因為相較于乘飛機與養狗等行為,這些家電的影響本就相對較小,雖然優化這些家電確實有益,但對碳排放的影響非常有限。
專家指出,要克服人類在氣候相關決策上的誤判傾向,最有效的方法就是提供更易獲取的信息。趙教授認為,由于獲取信息變得更容易,當今公眾判斷的準確性較一二十年前已經有所提升。
研究證實了這種假設。在受訪者完成對各種行為的排序后,研究人員糾正了他們的錯誤,然后受訪者改變了他們原本打算采取的環保行為。
弗拉塞亞努表示:“人們能從干預措施中有所收獲。經過學習之后,人們更愿意采取真正更高效的行動。”(財富中文網)
美聯社氣候與環境報道得到多家私人基金會的財務支持。美聯社對所有內容全權負責。歡迎登陸AP.org,查看美聯社與慈善機構合作的標準,以及支持者和資助報道領域列表。
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
It turns out many Americans aren’t great at identifying which personal decisions contribute most to climate change.
A study recently published by the National Academy of Sciences found that when asked to rank actions, such as swapping a car that uses gasoline for an electric one, carpooling or reducing food waste, participants weren’t very accurate when assessing how much those actions contributed to climate change, which is caused mostly by the release of greenhouse gases that happen when fuels like gasoline, oil and coal are burned.
“People over-assign impact to actually pretty low-impact actions such as recycling, and underestimate the actual carbon impact of behaviors much more carbon intensive, like flying or eating meat,” said Madalina Vlasceanu, report co-author and professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University.
The top three individual actions that help the climate, including avoiding plane flights, choosing not to get a dog and using renewable electricity, were also the three that participants underestimated the most. Meanwhile, the lowest-impact actions were changing to more efficient appliances and swapping out light bulbs, recycling, and using less energy on washing clothes. Those were three of the top four overestimated actions in the report.
There are many reasons people get it wrong
Vlasceanu said marketing focuses more on recycling and using energy-efficient light bulbs than on why flights or dog adoption are relatively bad for the climate, so participants were more likely to give those actions more weight.
How the human brain is wired also plays a role.
“You can see the bottle being recycled. That’s visible. Whereas carbon emissions, that’s invisible to the human eye. So that’s why we don’t associate emissions with flying,” said Jiaying Zhao, who teaches psychology and sustainability at the University of British Columbia.
Zhao added it’s easier to bring actions to mind that we do more often. “Recycling is an almost daily action, whereas flying is less frequent. It’s less discussed,” she said. “As a result, people give a higher psychological weight to recycling.”
Of course, there is also a lot of misleading information. For example, some companies tout the recycling they do while not telling the public about pollution that comes from their overall operations.
“There has been a lot of deliberate confusion out there to support policies that are really out of date,” said Brenda Ekwurzel, a climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit.
Why dogs have a big climate impact
Dogs are big meat eaters, and meat is a significant contributor to climate change. That is because many of the farm animals, which will become food, release methane, a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. Beef is especially impactful, in part because around the world cattle are often raised on land that was illegally deforested. Since trees absorb carbon dioxide, the most abundant greenhouse gas, cutting them to then raise cattle is a double whammy.
“People just don’t associate pets with carbon emissions. That link is not clear in people’s minds,” Zhao said.
Not all pets are the same, however. Zhao owns a dog and three rabbits.
“I can adopt 100 bunnies that will not be close to the emissions of a dog, because my dog is a carnivore,” she said.
The owner of a meat-eating pet can lower their impact by looking for food made from sources other than beef. Zhao, for example, tries to minimize her dog’s carbon footprint by feeding her less carbon-intensive protein sources, including seafood and turkey.
Pollution from air travel
Planes emit a lot of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides, also greenhouse gases. Additionally, planes emit contrails, or vapor trails that prevent planet-warming gases from escaping into space. A round-trip economy-class flight on a 737 from New York to Los Angeles produces more than 1,300 pounds of emissions per passenger, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency.
Skipping that single flight saves about as much carbon as swearing off eating all types of meat a year, or living without a car for more than three months, according to U.N. estimates.
Other decisions, both impactful and minor
Switching to energy that comes from renewable sources, such as solar and wind, has a large positive impact because such sources don’t emit greenhouse gases. Some of the biggest climate decisions individuals can make include how they heat and cool their homes and the types of transportation they use. Switching to renewable energy minimizes the impact of both.
Recycling is effective at reducing waste headed for landfill, but its climate impact is relatively small because transporting, processing and repurposing recyclables typically relies on fossil fuels. Plus, less than 10% of plastics actually get recycled, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Other decisions with overestimated impact, including washing clothes in cold water and switching to more efficient light bulbs, are relatively less important. That is because those appliances have a relatively small impact compared to other things, such as plane flights and dogs, so improving on them, while beneficial, has a much more limited influence.
Experts say the best way to combat the human tendency to miscalculate climate-related decisions is with more readily available information. Zhao said that people are already more accurate in their estimations than they would have been 10 or 20 years ago because it’s easier to learn.
The study backs up that hypothesis. After participants finished ranking actions, the researchers corrected their mistakes, and they changed which actions they said they’d take to help the planet.
“People do learn from these interventions,” Vlasceanu said. “After learning, they are more willing to commit to actually more impactful actions.”
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.