摩根大通預測看多美國股市，稱2019年有17%的漲幅

摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）與華爾街的許多機構一樣，認為股市將在2019年大幅上漲，按照公司的預測，股民明年會過得更好。

以杜布拉夫科·拉克斯-布賈斯和馬科·科蘭諾維奇為首的戰略分析師在上周五給客戶的一份照會中表示，由于公司利潤增長，投資者也愿意接受更高的估值，標普500指數（S&P 500 Index）明年年底之前會在現有的基礎上實現17%的漲幅，達到3,100點。

這個預期值要稍微高于彭博社（Bloomberg）調查的14位其他戰略分析師給出的平均值3,056點。

摩根大通寫道，隨著各公司投入超過1.5萬億美元來進行分紅和回購股票，那些在基準指數達到九年牛市最低點后轉身離去的投資者有可能回心轉意。該投行表示，對沖基金的持股量尤其低于正常值，只需要讓其回到平均水平，就意味著有5,000億美元涌入股市。

戰略分析師在照會中寫道：“我們認為是周期性的領導力量促使了上行的貿易陣痛，尤其是在高度增長的行業。即使各公司2019年的收入增速較之2018年有所放緩，也依舊屬于盈利范疇，收入也會繼續增加。”

摩根大通預計，標普500公司明年的每股累計收益為178美元，同比增長8%。這份預測認為美國與中國達成貿易協定的可能性要大于關稅摩擦升級的概率。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Next year will be better for stock investors, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which is joining other Wall Street bulls in forecasting big gains for 2019.

The S&P 500 Index will rise about 17% from current levels to 3,100 by the end of next year, driven by profit growth and investors’ willingness to accept higher valuations, strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients on last Friday.

The prediction is slightly higher than the average estimate of 3,056 from 14 other strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Investors who have turned away from the stock market as the benchmark index heads to one of its worst performances in the nine-year bull market will be lured back as companies spend more than $1.5 trillion on dividends and share repurchases, JPMorgan wrote. Hedge funds, in particular, hold fewer stocks than normal, and just a return to average would mean $500 billion pouring into U.S. equities, according to the investment bank.

“We see the upside pain-trade (is) driven by cyclical leadership, in particular, growth sectors,” the strategists wrote in the note. “Even though earnings are expected to decelerate relative to 2018, they should remain positive and continue to grow.”

S&P 500 companies will earn a cumulative $178 a share next year, an 8 percent increase, the firm projected. That estimate assumed a greater probability of a U.S.-China trade deal than tariff escalation.