超早期投資：如何能在創業者還未創業的時候就成為伯樂？

????既然塔吉特（Target）可以先于少女的父親知道她已經懷孕，那么，風險投資公司也應該有能力在初創公司誕生之前，便鎖定潛在的創始人。所需要的只是適當的數據而已。

????這正是不斷演進的風險投資行業未來的發展方向。正如馬克?蘇斯特上周指出的那樣，風險投資行業的兩極分化日益加劇。一方面，種子基金如雨后春筍般崛起，占新建基金總數的67%，另一方面，大型基金則變得日益龐大。對于早期投資者而言，這意味著競爭日益激烈，進而導致估值泡沫。等到一位公司創始人開始進行種子期融資時，其公司的估值可能已經達到1,000萬美元。

????要避免這種情況，方法之一是將投資的節點提前。在公司還未誕生之前就進行投資。甚至連創始人自己都不知道他們會進行創業的時候，便提前開始“燒冷灶”。彭博資訊（Bloomberg LP）旗下的創投基金Bloomberg Beta已經花了一年時間這么做了。

????該基金曾嘗試獨自建立“未來創始人”數據庫，但以失敗告終，因此，它決定與丹尼爾?莫里爾創建的交易情報公司Mattermark合作。其研究結果可能對投資決策方式產生深遠影響。目前的投資決策通常均基于投資者的本能和直覺。

????Mattermark確定了成功的創始人最有可能的職業發展路徑，并創建了一個150萬人的數據庫，由距離科技創業公司1-2個維度的人組成，但還不是創始人。通過分析八個月內創建公司的人，Mattermark先標出了確定一個人是否會創建公司最強有力的預測因素：一個人所接受的教育；他們之前工作的公司與所達到的職務級別；地理位置和年齡。這么做的目標是找出那些不符合標準創業路徑的東西。正如莫里爾指出的：“凡是看起來成型的東西，那肯定已經有人找到它了。”

????最終結果顯示，創業者的年齡要高于預期，但從事的職位沒有達到預計高度。數據庫內的群體，約40%超過了40歲。約有一半的人曾在有風投注資的公司工作，但有三分之二的人未從事過高級管理職務。管理咨詢顧問創業的幾率是其他職業的兩倍。Bloomberg Beta最終鎖定了350名潛在創始人，并邀請他們前往紐約和舊金山參加聚會。

????If Target can figure out a teen girl was pregnant before her father did, venture firms should be able to identify founders before they start companies. All it takes is the right data.

????That’s where venture capital—ever evolving—is headed. As Mark Susterpointed out last week, the venture capital landscape has become increasingly bifurcated. Seed funds are springing up everywhere, representing 67% of all new funds created, and large funds have gotten even larger. For the early stage investors, this means increased competition and frothy valuations. By the time a founder sets out to raise a seed round, the startup’s valuation might be $10 million.

????One way to get around that is to invest even earlier. Invest before the company is a company. Before the founder even knows they’re a founder. Bloomberg Beta, the venture investment arm of Bloomberg LP, has been doing this for a year now.

????After an unsuccessful attempt to build a database of “future founders” on its own, the firm teamed up with Mattermark, the deal intelligence company founded by Danielle Morrill. The results could have ramifications for the way investment decisions, typically driven by gut instinct and intuition, are made.

????Mattermark identified the most likely career paths of successful founders, creating a pool of 1.5 million people who were connected by one to two degrees of separation to tech startups, but were not founders yet. By analyzing the people that started companies over nine months, Mattermark mapped out the strongest predictors of starting a company: a person’s education, which previous companies they’ve worked for and how senior they were, their geography, and their age. The goal was to find things that didn’t fit the standard path to entrepreneurship. As Morrill points out: “Anything that looks like a pattern, people will already find it.”

????The resulting mix of people were older but less senior than you’d expect. Almost 40% of those in the dataset were over 40 years old. Almost half of the people in the data set had worked for a VC-backed company, but two thirds were not in senior leadership positions. Management consultants were twice as likely to start companies. Bloomberg Beta narrowed the list to 350 potential founders, and invited them to parties in New York and San Francisco.