巴西全力避免經(jīng)濟(jì)陷阱

????國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)( International Energy Agency )預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng)，巴西的石油產(chǎn)量在未來(lái)20年將增加兩倍，增至日產(chǎn)600萬(wàn)桶，從而成為世界第六大原油生產(chǎn)商。要實(shí)現(xiàn)如此樂(lè)觀的前景，需要巴西在未來(lái)5年內(nèi)投入數(shù)千億美元開(kāi)發(fā)油田和煉油廠。如果沒(méi)有開(kāi)發(fā)這些項(xiàng)目所需的勞動(dòng)力，這一幕根本無(wú)從實(shí)現(xiàn)。

????人力資源服務(wù)公司萬(wàn)寶盛華( Manpower)2013年的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，巴西是全球第二大最缺乏技術(shù)工人的國(guó)家。68%的巴西雇主聲稱(chēng)，他們面臨人才短缺問(wèn)題，嚴(yán)重程度僅次于日本（85%）。汽車(chē)制造商，建筑公司和能源企業(yè)越來(lái)越依賴其他國(guó)家的工人（巴西與9個(gè)國(guó)家接壤）。過(guò)去5年來(lái)，巴西勞工部頒發(fā)的外國(guó)技術(shù)工人臨時(shí)工作簽證一直在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。

????為了應(yīng)對(duì)不斷累積的人才短缺壓力，巴西總統(tǒng)迪爾瑪?羅塞夫已經(jīng)設(shè)定了提升合格工人數(shù)量的目標(biāo)，以推動(dòng)雇主和州及地方政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就預(yù)測(cè)和協(xié)調(diào)各自的勞動(dòng)力需求展開(kāi)合作。

????就伯南布哥州（巴西增長(zhǎng)最快的州之一）而言，這項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略看上去很有前景。巴西首屈一指的醫(yī)藥研究企業(yè)諾華公司(Novartis)在這個(gè)州建造的南美首家生物制藥廠將于2017年正式投產(chǎn)，這家公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開(kāi)始為這家工廠吸引和培訓(xùn)工人。諾華生物制藥公司(Novartis Biociencias S.A.)巴西法律事務(wù)主管伊莎貝拉?馬西埃爾?德薩說(shuō)，我們知道，如果不盡早著手，“我們就招不到人才了。”這家公司將斥資數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元，與州政府和聯(lián)邦大學(xué)(Federal University，巴西頂尖大學(xué)之一)合作開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)專(zhuān)業(yè)課程在線學(xué)習(xí)平臺(tái)以及一個(gè)面向巴西殘障人士的學(xué)習(xí)管道，培訓(xùn)能夠勝任實(shí)驗(yàn)室、生物安全和呼叫中心工作的合格工人。

????此外，羅塞夫還抱定決心要擊退地方主義，并為只會(huì)說(shuō)葡萄牙語(yǔ)的國(guó)民打破就業(yè)障礙。她打算在2015年之前派遣10.1萬(wàn)名巴西學(xué)生赴英語(yǔ)國(guó)家學(xué)習(xí)科學(xué)和數(shù)學(xué)（只有5%的巴西人講英語(yǔ)，政府把英語(yǔ)視為有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的勞動(dòng)力必須具備的能力之一）。羅塞夫特意選擇安德拉德幫助政府尋求外部幫助。安德拉德在總部位于丹佛的非政府組織“美國(guó)巴西連接中心”(U.S.-Brazil Connect)的幫助下已經(jīng)與數(shù)家美國(guó)社區(qū)學(xué)院結(jié)成合作關(guān)系，其中包括得克薩斯州的休斯敦社區(qū)學(xué)院(Houston Community College)、科羅拉多州的紅巖社區(qū)學(xué)院(Rock Community College)和密歇根州的杰克遜社區(qū)學(xué)院(Jackson Community College)等。這些學(xué)院開(kāi)設(shè)的以拓寬就業(yè)渠道為宗旨的英語(yǔ)培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)目對(duì)巴西年輕人頗具吸引力。

????17歲的韋斯利?梅洛就是其中一位。這位來(lái)自薩爾瓦多市（位于巴西東北部的巴伊亞州）的年輕人去年秋天在科羅拉多州參觀了幾所學(xué)校。梅洛說(shuō)：“這個(gè)計(jì)劃的真實(shí)意圖在于，讓學(xué)生沉浸在英語(yǔ)環(huán)境之中，然后回巴西工作，幫助祖國(guó)發(fā)展壯大。”他正在巴伊亞州攻讀一個(gè)為期兩年的機(jī)電一體化學(xué)位。他說(shuō)，將來(lái)回國(guó)后，“應(yīng)該能夠很容易找到一份工作。巴西需要大量的技術(shù)、工業(yè)自動(dòng)化，以及具備許多其他技能的人才。”

????但梅洛并不確定他能在巴西待足夠長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，以“幫助這個(gè)國(guó)家改變。”他說(shuō)，他受夠了幾乎每天都會(huì)碰到的安全和公共交通難題。“我住在距離技校大約10分鐘車(chē)程的地方，學(xué)校在馬路邊，附近有一個(gè)貧民窟，”梅洛說(shuō)。他要花兩個(gè)小時(shí)才能到家。“經(jīng)過(guò)的公交車(chē)實(shí)在太擁擠了，還經(jīng)常嚴(yán)重誤點(diǎn)。有一回等車(chē)時(shí)，我還被一幫暴徒搶走了背包。我的化學(xué)書(shū)就是在那里弄丟的。”

????梅洛爭(zhēng)辯說(shuō)，要是公共交通能更好一些，小偷也不至于如此猖狂。要是窮人沒(méi)有被排擠得這么厲害，犯罪現(xiàn)象就會(huì)少得多。

????薩爾瓦多的地鐵系統(tǒng)堪稱(chēng)巴西政府轉(zhuǎn)移財(cái)政支出重點(diǎn)的象征。自1997年以來(lái)，這套地鐵系統(tǒng)的建設(shè)一直停滯不前，目前只是一些不知通往何處的混凝土柱和銹跡斑斑的鐵軌。

????巴西政府承諾要趕在世界杯開(kāi)幕前及時(shí)改善公共交通系統(tǒng)。近幾個(gè)月以來(lái)，出于對(duì)政府斥巨資建造體育場(chǎng)館、接待中心和其他服務(wù)于賽事的公共設(shè)施的強(qiáng)烈不滿，已有上百萬(wàn)巴西人走上街頭，舉行聲勢(shì)浩大的抗議活動(dòng)。他們聲稱(chēng)，這些投入轉(zhuǎn)移了政府對(duì)鋪面道路、郵件傳送和飲用水等方面的投資資金。

????梅洛說(shuō)，這些服務(wù)對(duì)于數(shù)量迅速增長(zhǎng)、生活在貧民窟或棚戶區(qū)、缺乏熟練技術(shù)的下層階級(jí)來(lái)說(shuō)依然遙不可及。正在抗議的不僅僅是窮人和年輕人，“如果我媽媽同意我去，我也會(huì)去參加這些示威活動(dòng)。”

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????The International Energy Agency forecasts Brazil will triple its oil output in the next 20 years, with 6 million barrels per day, to become the sixth largest producer in the world. This optimistic outlook requires hundreds of billions of dollars to develop fields and refineries in the next five years. This cannot happen without the workforce to develop it.

????Brazil ranks second among the world's nations suffering from acute skills shortages, according to a 2013 survey by Manpower. Sixty-eight percent of the nation's employers reported that they have a talent problem, just behind Japan's 85%. Bordering nine countries, Brazil's automakers, construction firms, and energy concerns are increasingly reliant on workers from other countries. For the past five years, Brazil's Ministry of Labor has steadily increased temporary work visas for foreign technical workers.

????Responding to mounting pressures, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff has set goals to boost the number of work-ready Brazilians, pushing both employers and local and state leaders to collaborate to anticipate and coordinate their staffing needs.

????The strategy looks promising for Pernambuco, one of Brazil's fastest growing states. Brazil's leading pharmaceutical research firm, Novartis, will open the continent's first biotech plant there in 2017 and it's already scrambling to attract and train the workers to staff it. Short of this early and sustained effort, says Isabella Maciel de Sa, country legal head at Novartis Biociencias S.A., "we know we would not find the talent." Along with the state government and Federal University [one of Brazil's top universities], the company is developing a million-dollar online platform of specialized courses and a pipeline for the Brazil's disabled population to train for work in labs, biosecurity, and call centers.

????Intent on beating back provincialism and breaking barriers for Portuguese-only speakers, Rousseff has also set a 2015 deadline for sending 101,000 Brazilian students abroad to study science and math in English (only 5% of Brazilians speak the language, which the government has deemed necessary for a competitive workforce). Rousseff tapped Andrade to advance the government's hunt for outside help. Working with Denver-based U.S.-Brazil Connect, Andrade has teamed up with U.S. community colleges -- including Texas' Houston Community College, Colorado's Red Rock Community College, and Michigan's Jackson Community College, where expanding career-based and English proficiency programs attract young Brazilians.

????Among them is Wesley Melo, a 17-year-old from Salvador, in the northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia, who visited Colorado schools this past fall. "The real idea of the program is to send students to get immersion and then to return to Brazil and work in industry and help the country to grow," says Melo, who is pursuing a two-year mechatronics (mechanical and electronics) degree in Bahia. Back home, he says, "it should be easy to get a job…. In Brazil, we need technical, industrial automation, and so many other skills."

????But Melo is not sure he'll stay in Brazil long enough to "help the country change." He says he is fed up with the daily safety and public transportation difficulties. "I live about 10 minutes from technical school, which is on a road near a favela," says Melo. It takes him two hours to get home. "The busses pass and they are really crowded. And there are big delays. Waiting for the bus, I was robbed by thugs who took my backpack. My chemistry book was in there."

????Melo contends that if there were better public transportation, he would not have been so vulnerable to thieves. And if the poor were not so marginalized, there would be less crime.

????Emblematic of the Brazilian government's shifting fiscal priorities, Salvador's subway system, under construction and stalled since 1997, offers concrete pillars to nowhere and rusting rails.

????The government promises to improve mobility in time for the World Cup. Upward of a million Brazilian protestors have taken to the streets in recent months, seething over the government's commitment to build stadiums, hospitality centers, and an array of other public facilities for the games, which, they contend, diverts investments for paved roads, mail delivery, and potable water.

????Melo says that basics remain out of reach for the burgeoning unskilled underclass living in favelas, or shantytowns. It's not just the poor or the young who are demonstrating, he says: "If my mother had let me go, I would have joined the demonstrations."?????????