重塑西班牙經濟是擺脫債務危機的根本途徑

????歐洲領導人們馬不停蹄地出席一個又一個緊急會議，引得全球屏息關注。但與此同時，我們不能因為這一出出高潮迭起的政治大戲就忽視一個基本的事實，若想解決歐債危機，南歐國家的公司必須改變自身的競爭方式。這一點在西班牙尤為顯著——精英階層苦惱于貸款利率，街頭抗議者則大聲疾呼，要求封鎖邊境，恢復易貨貿易。

????幾乎沒人討論如何提高實體經濟的生產率。根據我們與IESE商學院（IESE Business School）同事布魯諾?卡斯曼的研究，1990-2010年間西班牙勞工生產率（即工人的實際人均產值）只提高了15%，明顯低于中北歐的25%。同期，西班牙單位勞工成本上漲了120%，而中北歐僅增長60%。這意味著西班牙單位產品勞工成本的增長比中北歐快了3倍——中北歐包括法國、德國這兩個西班牙的主要貿易伙伴。意大利和希臘的生產率增長同樣滯后。

????成本劣勢如此明顯，西班牙如何競爭？首先，要摒棄“封鎖邊境有助競爭”的想法。過去20年，那些產品和服務可以國際化交易的公司生產率的提升是純內向型企業的5倍。貿易繁榮需要西班牙公司進行升級。以葡萄酒行業為例，西班牙是世界第二大葡萄酒出口國，但出口重“量”不重“質”。2010年，西班牙葡萄酒出口平均售價僅為每升1.36美元，甚至低于10年前的每升1.74美元。提升檔次，然后售價向一流葡萄酒企業看齊，這條路似乎是提高生產率最可行的方式。

????創新的西班牙企業提高生產率的速度也比不創新的企業更快。飛速發展的小型葡萄酒企業Matarromera就是一個典型的例子。這家公司號稱30%的收入都用于創新，成功案例包括為穆斯林國家開發的一款無醇葡萄酒。

????另一個機會來自于信息科技產業。相比美國，西班牙在信息科技領域的投資比例極低，也沒有對提高生產率方面有所貢獻。如今資金匱乏，但隨著云計算等技術的推進，期初資金投入已經不再高得嚇人。

????最后，西班牙需要培育大中型企業。按照中北歐的標準，西班牙就業不成比例地集中于小微企業。如果西班牙擁有與德國相同數量的大中型公司，我們的計算顯示，很多產業的生產率將提高10-20%。

????推而廣之，只有企業變得更加國際化、提高創新能力、擁有更高科技和更大規模，才能重構南歐經濟。這是西班牙、意大利、希臘和其他國家擺脫當前險境的唯一途徑。

????--Pankaj Ghemawat是《世界 3.0 版》（World 3.0）一書的作者，他和Stijn Vanormelingen兩人在IESE商學院從事生產率研究。

????譯者：早稻米

????As Europe's leaders attend one emergency meeting after another, the political high drama shouldn't make us lose sight of the fact that if the debt crisis is to be solved, Southern European companies need to change how they compete. Nowhere is that more evident than in Spain, whose elites fret over interest rates while protesters in the streets call for closing the borders and a return to barter.

????Almost no one there is talking about how to make the real economy more productive. According to our research with IESE Business School colleague Bruno Cassiman, Spanish labor productivity (real output per worker) went up by only 15% between 1990 and 2010, vs. 25% in Northern Europe. Meanwhile Spanish costs per worker went up by 120%, vs. 60% in Northern Europe. That means labor costs per unit produced in Spain rose three times faster than in Northern Europe -- the region that includes its two largest trading partners, France and Germany. Italy and Greece have fallen behind the productivity curve as well.

????How can Spain compete with this cost disadvantage? First, forget the idea that closing the borders would help. Over the past two decades Spanish companies in sectors where products and services can be traded internationally raised their productivity five times more than their counterparts in purely domestic sectors. Raising prosperity through trade will require Spanish firms to upgrade. Consider the wine sector. Spain is the world's second-largest wine exporter but has focused on volume rather than value. In 2010, Spanish wines were exported, on average, for only $1.36 per liter, compared with $1.74 per liter 10 years ago. Moving upscale and thus being able to charge what other leading producers do seems the most plausible way to boost productivity.

????Spanish firms that innovate also increased productivity faster than firms that didn't. Matarromera, a small but fast-growing winemaker that claims to spend 30% of its revenue on innovation, is one example. Its successes include a nonalcoholic wine for Muslim countries.

????Another opportunity is provided by information technology. Compared with the U.S., Spanish rates of investment in IT have been abysmally low and haven't paid off in productivity improvements. Funds are scarce these days, but with developments such as cloud computing, the initial cash outlays required are no longer quite so daunting.

????Finally, Spain needs to create bigger companies. Spanish employment is, by Northern European standards, disproportionately concentrated among very small firms. If Spain had the same number of big and medium-size companies as Germany, that would, we calculate, increase productivity in a number of sectors by 10% to 20%.

????The broader point, once again, is that the restructuring of the Southern European economies will not happen until firms become more international, more innovative, more high tech, and bigger. It's the only way Spain, Italy, Greece, and others will walk away from the edge of the current precipice.

????--Pankaj Ghemawat, author of World 3.0, and Stijn Vanormelingen do productivity research at IESE.