資深人士預言風險投資黃金時代即將到來

????展望未來，我們發現五股力量將合力加強風險資本生態體系：

????1. 顛覆: 社交/局域/移動/web 2.0是實現人類前所未見偉大動力，將帶來顛覆和革新。

????2. 創業者: 投入到創業的熱情空前高漲。

????3. 天使投資: 天使投資者的種子基金已經遍地開花，將繼續成長。

????4. 風險資金供應減少。

????5. 退出機制豐富，成長道路寬廣。

????1. 顛覆。移動、社交網絡、云和“數碼土著”一代正在改變一切。他們已經比個人電腦的浪潮來勢更兇猛，并將帶來更大變革。耐用品的銷售和媒體（電影、書刊和音樂）已被徹底顛覆。本地商家現在已經感受到風暴將至。醫療保健和教育不相信會受到沖擊，咱們等著瞧。數萬億美元的現存市值將被摧毀，而顛覆者將創造更大的價值。

????2. 創業者。我有四個兒子，其中一個明年將升入大學。他現在就已經想成為高科技的創業者。當年我們讀大學的時候，那可不是主流選擇。但是今天的楷模正在穿著連帽衫奔忙于上市路演，創業隊伍中的學生軍也不再是神話傳說，而像Facebook這樣的科技平臺公司極大地降低了靠軟件發家的生意門檻。

????3. 天使在飛翔。2010年，天使投資者向6.19萬家公司投入201億美元。當《就業法案》（JOBS Act）的大眾融資條款在2013年1月生效時，我們相信公司的數目將急劇增長，達到數十萬量級。大眾融資法限定每家公司每年向大眾融資不超過100萬美元。這筆錢足夠讓公司生產原型產品，但要商業化或者上規模則遠遠不夠。風投將會有巨大的機會帶領其中最優秀的公司和創業者走出下一步。

????Looking forward, we see five converging forces that will strengthen the venture capital ecosystem:

????1. Disruption: Social/local/mobile/web 2.0 is the greatest engine for disruption and innovation man has yet seen

????2. Entrepreneurs: There has never been more energy for creating businesses

????3. Angels: Seed funding by angels has bloomed and will grow further

????4. Reduced Supply of venture capital

????5. Exits are way up, and the road is paved for growth

????1. Disruption. Mobile, social networks, the cloud, and the "digital native" generation are changing everything. They are already growing faster, and will be much bigger than the PC wave. Hard goods retailing and media (movies, books, and music) have already been uprooted by this tsunami. Local commerce feels the storm rising now. Healthcare and education don't believe it will hit them – just wait. Trillions of dollars of existing market value will be destroyed, and the disruptors will create even more value.

????2. Entrepreneurs. One of our sons is going to college next year and wants to be a technology entrepreneur. That was not a mainstream choice when we went to college. But today's role models are on IPO road shows dressed in hoodies, student-entrepreneurs have cred and technology platform companies like Facebook have dramatically lowered the hurdle for software-based businesses.

????3. Angels Take Flight. In 2010, angels invested $20.1 billion into 61,900 companies. When the crowdfunding provision of the JOBS Act goes live in January 2013, we think that number will grow dramatically – into the hundreds of thousands. The crowdfunding bill limits annual fundraising per company from the "crowd" to $1 million. That's enough money to prototype a company, but not enough to commercialize or scale it. There will be huge opportunity for VCs to carry the best companies and entrepreneurs forward.