????摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）最近換人了。

????長期追蹤蘋果（Apple）的分析師馬克?莫斯科維茨離職了。頂替他位置的人是電信分析師羅德?哈爾，他認為，他的想法價值630億美元。

????他在上周二寫給客戶的第一封投資報告中稱，蘋果基本上掌控了售價超過1,000美元手提電腦的市場。據估算，蘋果在北美市場的占有率為68%，在西歐市場的占有率為49%，而在全球市場的占有率為36%。

????但據哈爾稱，手提電腦的甜點（上表紅色框中部分）恰好處于1000美元價格之下：2013年售價為500至1,000美元的手提電腦發貨量近1億部，約占當年市場總發貨量的55%。

????哈爾認為，只要給iPad配上鍵盤，蘋果每年就有可能從這個市場賺取最高630億美元的收入。他將此稱為“iAnywhere”解決方案。

????“隨著一些iPad用戶用這種設備代替手提電腦，我們相信，大多數人將iPad用作是手提電腦或桌面電腦的補充設備。如果iAnywhere解決方案能夠讓用戶將iPad既能用作個人電腦，也能作為平板電腦靈活使用，我們認為，很多人將選擇只購買一個設備。我們還認為，當前從經銷商處購買戴爾（Dell）等低價電腦的很多用戶將轉而選擇使用蘋果產品。

????哈爾估計，惠普（Hewlett-Packard）是500-1,000美元電腦甜點區間的重要生產商，隨后依次為聯想（Lenovo） (16%)、戴爾(14%)、華碩（ASUS）(12%)和宏碁（Acer） (10%)。

????哈爾沒有提到的一家硬件制造商是微軟（Microsoft）。鑒于微軟出售Surface系列平板電腦，這個遺漏很奇怪，因為這款產品聽起來非常像他建議蘋果制造的那種產品。自2013年夏季推出之后，微軟的Surface平板電腦表現喜憂參半。據GeekWire報道稱，截至3013年6月30日，Surface銷售總收入達8.53億美元。這個數額幾乎等同于微軟公司在2013年7月對未售出Surface RT電腦進行的 減記數額9億美元。 (財富中文網)

????There's been a changing of the guard at J.P. Morgan.

????Long-time Apple (AAPL) analyst Mark Moskowitz is out. Taking his place is telecom analyst Rod Hall, who brings with him what he believes is a $63-billion idea.

????Apple, he wrote in an inaugural note to clients Tuesday, basically owns the market for laptops priced above $1,000. It's got an estimated 68% market share of the North American market, a 49% share in Western Europe and a 36% share globally.

????But according to Hall, the sweet spot for laptops, as indicated by red rectangle in the attached chart, sits just below that price point: In the $500-to-$1,000 range, into which nearly 100 million laptops -- 55% of the total market -- shipped in 2013.

????Apple could make as much as a $63 billion a year in that market, Hall argues, if it would just put a keyboard on the iPad. He calls it Apple's "iAnywhere" solution.

????"While some iPad users are replacing laptops with the device we believe that most use the iPad as a supplemental device to either a laptop or desktop PC. If iAnywhere allowed these users to flexibly use an iPad as both a PC and a Tablet we believe that many would elect to simply own one device. We also believe that many users currently purchasing lower priced laptops from vendors like Dell would choose to switch to Apple."

????Hewlett-Packard is the big player in the $500-$1,000 sweet spot, Hall estimates, followed by Lenovo (16%), Dell (14%), ASUS (12%) and Acer (10%).

????One hardware manufacturer Hall doesn't mention is Microsoft (MSFT) -- a curious omission considering that Microsoft sells a family of machines -- the Surfaces -- that sounds a lot like the one he's suggesting Apple make. Since they were introduced in the summer of 2013, Microsoft's Surface hybrids have met with mixed success. According to GeekWire, total Surface revenue reached $853 million on June 30, 2013. That's almost as much as the $900 million write-downthe company took in July 2013 for unsold Surface RTs.