????美國風險投資協會（National Venture Capital Association）和湯森路透（Thomson Reuters）日前公布的數據顯示，去年風投通過并購方式只出售了388家公司。這是2009年以來的最低水平，較2012年下降了近23%。

????聽起來很糟糕。但事實或許并非如此。

????IPO市場走勢強勁之時，比如就像2013年，風投資本家們通常都不愿通過出售來退出勢頭最好的公司。當然會有例外，比如輕博客Tumblr作價11億美元賣給了雅虎（Yahoo）。但大多數優秀的公司要么IPO，申請IPO，要么預計在未來1、2年內將進行IPO（比如，AirBNB，Box，Dropbox，Square，Spotify，等等）。

????這意味著大多數并購標的要么是中不溜的公司，以低于面值價格出售，要么是運營不善，以白菜價出售。為什么這些交易只有25-35%公布了交易額？這就是原因。沒人愿意公布投資（或收購）一家公司的價錢可能還不如我已有七年車齡的豐田普瑞斯（Toyota Prius）。

????但如果風投出售的公司數量少于過去多年，可能事實上意味著風投的回報得到了提高。特別是，如果公布交易的平均交易額仍相對健康（在1.61億美元左右）。不然，就是我的反直覺中有什么漏洞？（財富中文網）???????????

????Venture capitalists sold only 388 companies via mergers or acquisitions last year, according to data released this morning by the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters. It is the lowest such total since 2009, and nearly a 23% decline from 2012.

????Sounds pretty bad. But it probably isn't.

????When the IPO market is strong, as it was in 2013, venture capitalists are typically loathe to exit their best companies via trade sales. Sure there are exceptions -- Tumblr to Yahoo (YHOO) for $1.1 billion, for example -- but most of the upper crust either went public, filed to go public or is expecting to go public within the next year or two (think AirBNB, Box, Dropbox, Square, Spotify, etc.).

????What that means is that most of the M&A targets either are middling companies being dumped around par, or failed companies being sold for scrap. That's why only 25-35% of these deals ever have their values disclosed -- no one wants to publicize having funded (or bought) a company that is now worth less than my seven-year-old Toyota Prius.

????So if VCs are selling fewer companies than in years past, then it may actually mean the VCs are generating higher returns. Particularly if the average value of disclosed deals remains relatively healthy (which it was, at around $161 million). Or is there a flaw in my counterintuition??????