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          專欄 - 蘋果2_0

          水貨iPad在華價格跳水之謎

           Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年03月28日

          蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
          有報道稱,這是因為新iPad需求低迷。但也有報道稱是因為市場供過于求。

          準備運往中國內地的一箱子iPad。圖片來源:《每日郵報》(Daily Mail)

          ????路透社(Reuters)和英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)周一均刊登了關于中國水貨蘋果(Apple)市場的文章,雖然兩篇文章的結論迥異,但有一點是一致的,即兩周來新iPad售價已下跌了大約 30%。

          ????新iPad——即擁有那款神乎其神Retina顯示屏的iPad——在美國上市后的第二天就出現在了北京的水貨市場。當時,這款在美國零售價不到500美元的機型中國經銷商可賣到1,100 美元。路透社的報道稱,如今,600美元或700美元的售價更為常見。

          ????這是怎么回事?

          ????英國《金融時報》用兩位采訪對象的直接引語給出了兩種解釋:

          ????“現在的人們對iPad理性多了,”北京科技園區中關村的一位經銷商薛金鵬(音譯)稱?!八麄兏敢獾葍r格跌下來,甚至等到行貨上市。”

          ????上海某外資保險公司的秘書Annie Zeng是一位眾所周知的果粉,她說,她感覺新iPad價格更高,但并沒有提供什么新的東西。

          ????路透社的文章顯然花了更多心思,它全程追蹤了iPad在舊金山地區的蘋果專賣店被購入、裝入手提箱、速遞至香港、然后再由背包客走私運入中國內地的整個過程,最后得出了一個截然不同的結論。

          ????文章指出,不同于iPad 2在美國上市后近兩個月才在中國香港和上海開售,第三代iPad在美國上市后一周就已經可以在中國香港和上海經銷商處批量購買。

          ????兩篇文章并不矛盾,但標題發出了截然不同的信號:

          ????? 路透社:中國走私iPad生意遭遇倒春寒

          ????? 英國《金融時報》:新iPad在中國內地遇冷;商家紛紛降價甩貨

          ????譯者:早稻米

          ????Dueling stories Monday in Reuters and the Financial Times about the Chinese gray market for Apple (AAPL) products agree on one thing: The prices the new iPad can fetch have fallen roughly 30% in the past two weeks.

          ????When the latest iPad -- the one with the much-hyped Retina display -- showed up in Beijing the day after its U.S. launch, Chinese resellers could get as much as $1,100 for a model that retails for less than $500. Today, according to Reuters, prices like $600 or $700 are more common.

          ????What's going on?

          ????The Financial Times offers two explanations in the form of a pair of quotes:

          ????"People are getting a lot more rational about the iPad now," said Xue Jinpeng, a reseller in Zhongguancun, Beijing's technology district. "They are a lot more willing to wait until prices come down or even until the official launch."

          ????Annie Zeng, a secretary at a foreign insurance company in Shanghai and a confessed Apple fan, said she felt the latest iPad offered nothing new for the higher price.

          ????Reuters, in a considerably more ambitious story that follows the path of iPads bought in San Francisco-area Apple Stores, stuffed in suitcases, shipped by courier to Hong Kong and smuggled by backpack onto the mainland, draws a different conclusion.

          ????It points out that unlike the iPad 2, which went on sale in Hong Kong and Shanghai nearly two months after its U.S. launch, the third-generation iPad was available in quantity in Hong Kong and Shanghai Apple Stores a week after U.S. sales began.

          ????"This whole game is over," a Beijing gray marketer complained to Reuters. "There's an overabundance of supply. The market's flooded."

          ????The two reports are not contradictory. But the headlines send a very different signal:

          ????? Reuters: Tough times in the U.S.-China iPad smuggling game

          ????? FT: Latest Apple iPad Struggles in China; Sellers Cut Price

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