僵尸企業越來越多，可能給美國經濟帶來威脅

在著名的青少年喜劇《老板度假去》（Weekend At Bernie’s）中，老板死后，兩名員工以自己的方式處理了他的尸體：給他戴上深色太陽鏡，拖著他出席各種派對，讓他看起來盡可能像活著一樣。

這個假設在喜劇片中足以站得住腳，但它與我們當今經濟形勢的相似度可能比你想象得更高。

在金融界，需要有人幫助續命的公司被稱作“僵尸”：這些公司現有的收入甚至無法償付債務成本。它們的狀況很糟糕，可能已經破產停業。

但是，它們依舊憑借外來的支撐茍延殘喘。而且沒錯，它們就在我們當中活動著。

咨詢公司13D Global Strategy & Research的常務董事特雷弗·諾倫對這一現象有長期研究，他表示：“如果一家公司在不繼續舉債或清理資產的情況下無法履行債務，就是僵尸公司。低利率的持續時間越長，僵尸公司的數量就會越多。”

實際上，根據位于瑞士的國際清算銀行（Bank for International Settlements）的研究報告，在14個發達經濟體中，上市公司如今有12%是僵尸公司。Bianco Research的分析指出，標普1500指數中有14%的公司可以被認定為僵尸公司。國際清算銀行貨幣經濟部主任克勞迪亞·博里奧指出：“在20世紀80年代，這個比例還只有2%。”

所以，是低利率催生了這些僵尸公司嗎？我們可以從銀行的角度來考慮：如果你讓一家深陷麻煩的客戶貸款數百萬美元，你是希望承認自己的錯誤，眼睜睜看著它破產，再核銷這些貸款，還是會再給它一些更便宜的貸款，讓它活久一點？

僵尸企業的文化就這樣形成了。

在利率處于低點而又蓬勃發展的經濟體中，這樣做無可厚非。畢竟，公司有時就能時來運轉，沒有人想看到任何公司——以及相關的投資者、崗位和養老金——化為泡影。

不過若是碰上利率提高，或是讓董事會每個人都遭受打擊的衰退，那些之前“看起來”還不錯的公司就會如夢初醒了。

面對這個問題的不只是美國。由于低利率屬于全球現象，因此歐洲和中國也游蕩者大量行尸走肉的公司。

全球僵尸經濟的結果就是生產力降低。畢竟，支持一堆半死不活的公司可不是資本主義的運作方式。

博里奧表示：“這可能會在長期內影響生產力的提高，因為僵尸公司的數量提升了，它們占據的資源本來可以投入到生產力更高的其他地方，包括競爭對手那里。”

諾倫表示，活躍的投資者應該回避那些突出的僵尸公司。隨便列舉幾個境況凄慘的公司，例如西爾斯百貨（Sears）、玩具反斗城（Toys “R” Us）和巴尼斯紐約精品店（Barneys New York），它們都很明顯只是在垂死掙扎。

那消極的投資者呢？如果現在標普1500指數里有14%是僵尸公司，而你又持有指數基金，那你的投資最終會怎么樣？

畢竟，眾所周知，個體投資者很不擅長在市場危機時期保持冷靜和鎮定。這是行為金融學的常識。諾倫問道：“如果僵尸公司出現違約潮，投資者是否會干脆把整個投資組合全部賣掉？在經濟動蕩加劇且持續的嚴峻時刻，這是一個可能迅速讓市場衰退變得更加嚴重的系統性弱點。”

然而，目前來看，利率正在降低：美聯儲（The Federal Reserve）最近降息25個基點，這是十年來他們首次決定降息。此舉會讓僵尸公司獲得續命之機，甚至催生一些新的僵尸公司。

不過一旦出現全面衰退，資產負債表上的基礎數據就會變得極其重要，公司只有拿出最強勁的業績才能存活。到那時，你就會精確地得知自己的投資組合里有多少僵尸公司了。

諾倫表示：“這個問題只在于清算會隨著時間緩慢發生，還是類似衰退的催化劑推動著它迅速完成。不管怎樣，它已經向我們走來了。”（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

In the famous teen comedy “Weekend At Bernie’s”, when their boss dies, a couple of staffers deal with his cadaver the only way they know how: Putting dark sunglasses on him, dragging him around to various parties, and generally making him seem as alive as possible.

A solid comedy premise—and one with more similarities to our current economy than you might think.

In the financial world, companies on life support are called “Zombies”: Those firms which are not even able to cover their debt-servicing costs with current earnings. They are in bad shape, and probably should have gone out of business already.

Yet, they are being kept alive. And yes, they walk among us.

“If a firm cannot meet its debt obligations without taking out even more debt or liquidating assets, it's a zombie,” says Trevor Noren, managing director of advisory firm 13D Global Strategy & Research, who has long studied the phenomenon. “The longer interest rates stay low, the more the zombie population will multiply.”

In fact across 14 advanced economies, zombies now number 12% of all publicly-listed companies, according to a research paper by the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements. Within the S&P 1500, 14% of companies could be classified as zombies, according to analysis by Bianco Research. “In the 1980s, the share was a mere 2%,” notes Claudio Borio, head of BIS’ Monetary and Economic Department.

So how have low interest rates helped create all these zombies? Well, think of it from a bank’s perspective: If you have lent millions of dollars to a troubled client, do you want to admit your mistake, watch that company go bust, and have to write off those loans? Or might you grant them even more cheap credit, in order to keep them going a little while longer?

Voila: A culture of corporate zombies.

In a booming economy with rock-bottom rates, it’s pretty understandable. Company fortunes do turn around sometimes, after all, and nobody likes to see any firm—with all those shareholders, and jobs, and pensions—go under.

But in an era of rising rates, or a recession that pummels everybody across the board, there can be rude awakenings for companies that previously "looked" okay.

It’s not just the U.S. dealing with this problem, either. Since low rates are a global phenomenon, there are plenty of the Walking Dead lurching around in Europe and China, as well.

One result of a global zombie economy is that productivity suffers. After all, propping up an army of half-dead companies is not really how capitalism is supposed to work.

“That may weigh on productivity growth in the long run, as the number of zombie firms rises and absorbs resources that could be employed more productively elsewhere—including by competitors,” says Borio.

Active investors should be able to sidestep prominent zombies, says Noren. The state of bloodied companies like Sears, Toys “R” Us and Barneys New York, to name just a few troubled firms, was fairly obvious as they grunted and staggered around.

But what about passive investors? If 14% of the S&P 1500 is now zombified, and you own an index fund, what exactly is your exposure going to be?

After all, individual investors are notoriously terrible at staying calm and collected during market crises. That’s behavioral finance 101. “If a wave of zombie defaults comes, will investors simply sell the entire basket?” asks Noren. “This is a systemic weakness that could rapidly deepen a market downturn, in the even of heightened and sustained economic turbulence.”

For the moment, though, interest rates are falling: The Federal Reserve recently cut rates by a quarter-point, the first such dip in a decade. That will keep corporate zombies on life support, and maybe even create a few new ones.

But if a full-blown recession hits, balance-sheet fundamentals will become critically important, and only the strongest specimens will survive. That’s when you will realize precisely how many zombies have set up shop in your portfolio.

“It’s just a question of whether it will happen gradually over time, or whether a catalyst—like a recession—will force a rapid reckoning,” says Noren. “Either way, it’s coming.”