別被忽悠了：美國仍存在赤字問題

????但這可能使人產生誤解。按照經濟形勢進行調整后，政府赤字實際上會變大。正如國會預算辦公室和其他機構預計的那樣，今后幾年的美國經濟將繼續處于長期緩慢復蘇狀態，美國經濟差不多要到2018年才會非常接近充分就業水平。隨著稅收逐漸增多，失業救濟等支出項目不斷減少，經濟好轉將自動降低赤字。為區分經濟的作用和政策的作用，分析師考察的是剔除了周期性因素的赤字，它消除了經濟周期的影響，以便更有意義地觀察赤字情況。

????如圖所示，剔除周期性因素后，今后十年政府赤字預計將急劇上升，今明兩年將占GDP的1.5%左右，隨后幾年這個比例將超過3.5%（在更為現實的財政環境下，隨后幾年的政府赤字占GDP的比率將達到約3.8%）。在充分就業狀態下，赤字占GDP的比率達到3.5%是個嚴重問題——這是1990年以來的最高點。當時，決策者認為赤字致使布什總統違背了他自己做出的“仔細聽著，我不會增加稅收”這一承諾，并促使國會通過了一攬子削減赤字措施，還進行了重大預算改革。

????長期財政政策不會帶來危機。它甚至都不是目前美國經濟面臨的最重要問題——現在最重要的是加快經濟復蘇。財政情況不應該妨礙基于這些原則而進行的調整。在過去幾年中，對赤字的預期不斷下降，而且存在不確定性。

????不過，不要把這些和宣稱我們贏得了債務戰爭勝利混為一談。我們還有很長的路要走，還需要用合適的方法在合適的時候通過選擇財政政策來爭取很多東西。

????比爾?蓋爾在布魯金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）經濟研究項目Arjay and Frances Miller Chair教席研究員，專攻聯邦經濟政策，是稅收政策、財政問題、退休金和儲蓄行為專家。他還是該研究所稅收政策中心聯席主任和退休保障項目的負責人。(財富中文網)

????譯者：Charlie

????But this can be misleading. Adjusted for the state of the economy, the deficit is actually getting bigger. As CBO and others project, the long, slow economic recovery will continue the next few years, bringing the economy very close to full employment by about 2018. The improvement of the economy reduces the deficit automatically as tax receipts rise and payments for programs like unemployment compensation fall. To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit.

????As shown in the figure, the cyclically adjusted deficit is projected to rise sharply over the decade, from about 1.5% of GDP this year and next to more than 3.5% in the out years. (Under a more realistic alternative fiscal scenario, the cyclically adjusted deficit rises to about 3.8 % of GDP in the out years.) A full employment deficit of 3.5% of GDP is serious — the highest since 1990, when policy makers saw deficits caused Bush to violate his own “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge and led lawmakers to enact a deficit reduction package and significant budget reforms.

????Long-term fiscal policy is not a crisis. It is not even the most important issue facing the economy this moment – strengthening the recovery is – and the fiscal situation should not stand in the way of changes along those lines. Deficit projections have come down the last few years and are subject to uncertainty.

????But don’t confuse these points with claims of victory in the debt wars. There is still a long way to go and a lot to gain from dealing with fiscal policy choices – in the right way at the right time.

????Bill Gale, the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy in the Economic Studies Program at Brookings Institution, is an expert on tax policy, fiscal issues, pensions, and saving behavior. He is also co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings.