《財富》水晶球：2014全球大事預測

????AT＆T將與沃達豐合并

????關于美國電信巨頭AT＆T有可能與英國沃達豐公司( Vodafone)合并的謠言已經流傳了10年左右。盡管2004年的交易以失敗告終，但今年9月份，在沃達豐同意將其持有威瑞森( Verizon)45%的股權回售給這家公司（許多人認為這是沃達豐在尋求與AT＆T合并交易前必須完成的步驟之一，AT＆T是僅次于威瑞森的美國第二大電信公司）之后，這種傳言再次甚囂塵上。據說AT＆T有意在2014年收購歐洲的電信公司，并且悄悄地盯上了沃達豐，但這兩家公司還沒有確認這個消息。電信業的進一步兼并整合——有報道稱斯普林特公司(Sprint )正在追逐德國電信公司(T-Mobile)——使得這樁合并交易變得更加可能。

????概率: 75%。

????AT&T will merge with Vodafone

????Rumors have been swirling for a decade about a possible merger between American telecom giant AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and its British counterpart Vodafone (VOD). But while a 2004 deal fell apart, speculation intensified again this past September after Vodafone agreed to sell its 45% stake in Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) back to that company. (Many view that as a needed step before Vodafone can pursue a deal with AT&T, the second-largest telecom firm in the U.S. after Verizon.) AT&T has expressed interest in European acquisitions in 2014 and is quietly eyeing Vodafone, according to news reports, though neither company will confirm it. Further consolidation in the telecom industry -- as with reports that Sprint (S, Fortune 500) is pursuing T-Mobile (TMUS) -- could make a deal more likely.

????Odds: 75%.