《財富》水晶球：2014全球大事預測

????百威英博將收購吉尼斯

????2013年，這家總部位于比利時、由巴西人執掌的全球最大啤酒公司收購了莫德洛集團(Grupo Modelo)，科羅娜( Corona)由此成為百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev )旗下全球知名啤酒品牌系列【包括百威(Budweiser)、貝克(Becks)和時代(Stella Artois)】的新成員。誰又將成為它的下一個目標呢？許多分析師不愿做出記錄在案的猜測，但有一位分析師表示，“與百威英博、南非釀酒集團(SAB)或喜力公司(Heineken)相比，目前還沒有被它們納入囊中的公司太小了，幾乎都是這幾家行業巨頭嘴邊的獵物。”那么，為什么要收購吉尼斯(Guinness)？在那些還不屬于三巨頭的啤酒品牌中，吉尼斯或許是最具代表性的一家。盡管吉尼斯的所有者、專注于烈性酒業務的帝亞吉歐酒業集團(Diageo)表示有意繼續持有這一烈性啤酒品牌，但只要價格合適，估計帝亞吉歐還是會愿意出售的。對并購問題向來守口如瓶的百威英博CEO卡洛斯?布里托堅稱，他的公司將全身心地經營已經擁有的品牌，但在百威英博準備吞下科羅娜之前，他也說過類似的話。

????概率: 24%。

????Anheuser-Busch InBev will buy Guinness

????In 2013 the Belgium-based, Brazilian-managed, biggest beer company in the world bought up Grupo Modelo, adding Corona to its portfolio of globally recognized brews such as Budweiser, Becks, and Stella Artois. What next? Analysts won't go on record speculating, but, says one, "the big companies are so much bigger than the small ones that anything not owned by ABI, SAB, or Heineken is pretty much up for grabs." So why Guinness? It may be the most iconic brand of those not owned by one of the big three. Guinness's owner, Diageo, which focuses mostly on spirits, has said it wants to keep the popular stout. But if the price is right, expect Diageo to sell. ABI (BUD) CEO Carlos Brito is famously cagey about M&A and insists that his company will focus on the brands it already has -- but he said the same thing right before he moved on Corona.

????Odds: 24%.