底特律破產也有光明的一面

????其實，投資者和媒體們應該從另一個角度看待底特律申請破產保護。它并不是一場災難——雖然底特律破產保護的結果如何最終還要經歷一段漫長的法律程序，但是最終它可能會變成一件好事，不僅對于苦難深重的底特律居民，甚至對于債務市場乃至對于整個美國都是一件好事。

????這是因為底特律的問題要遠比其它城市嚴重得多。導致底特律破產的核心原因其實是福利問題，只是很多人不愿相信這個另類的解釋。

????雖然最近的許多政府債務危機并不是由養老金和福利開支導致的，但是福利問題仍然是幾乎所有大城市接下來都要面對的問題。

????底特律的破產使退休工人們隨時擔憂自己的養老金將遭到災難性的影響，而這也使一些面臨相同問題的城市在與工會談判時多了一個籌碼，可以迫使工會就養老金和醫療保建支出的問題上作出某種妥協。這可以避免很多城市重蹈底特律的覆轍，從而給美國高達3.7萬億美元的市政債券市場注入一些急需的信心。

????底特律財政吃緊的狀況已經存在幾十年了，主要原因在于政府管理不善、犯罪率居高不下以及人口的日益萎縮。沒有哪個城市比這座汽車城更能反映出美國制造業江河日下，城市里隨處可見廢棄的停車場、關閉的學校和破爛不堪的基礎建筑。所以，上周這座城市申請破產保護的時候幾乎沒有人感到意外。

????人們難免會把底特律的破產保護與其他城市進行對比，因為最近還有不少城市也出現了債務違約或申請了破產。但其實它們并沒有可比性。那些城市之所以被推到破產的邊緣主要是由于城建項目投資不善，或者是由于資產價值出現了重大變化，與底特律的破產都沒有可比性。

????比如賓州首府哈里斯堡今年之所以進入破產管理程序，是因為這個城市投資建設了一個昂貴的垃圾焚燒廠項目，最終這個項目燒掉的錢要遠遠多于它燒掉的垃圾，導致它無力償還相關債務。與此同時，阿拉巴馬州的伯明罕市由于興建了一個大型下水道工程，花掉了數十億美元而無力償債，只得也申請了破產保護。另外像加州的斯托克頓、蒙羅維亞、夫勒斯諾、猛犸湖等市鎮也出現了嚴重的財政問題。主要原因是由于資產價值的急劇下跌擊潰了市政預算的收益面。

????而底特律之所以陷入困境則是由于不同的原因所致。顯而易見，城市服務開支過多不是底特律破產的原因之一。畢竟在這個城市，人們在撥打報警電話后，警察平均50分鐘內才能趕到現場，幾乎是美國其他城市平均11分鐘的報警反應時間的五倍。底特律40%的路燈不能正常工作，而且近五年有一半的公園都關了門。它的失業率也達到全美平均失業率的兩倍，只有7%的八年級學生擁有合格的閱讀能力。

????Detroit's recent bankruptcy filing should be looked at by both investors and the media in a different light. Far from being a disaster -- the outcome of which will inevitably be a very long trip through the court system -- it could end up being a net positive for not just the city's beleaguered residents, but for both the debt markets and the nation as a whole.

????That's because while the severity of the city's problems are far worse than in other municipalities, the core issues that have placed Detroit in front of a judge aren't as idiosyncratic as some would like to believe: entitlements. While entitlement spending and legacy costs aren't behind the recent spate of muni meltdowns, they are something that nearly all major cities will need to grapple with down the road.

????Detroit's bankruptcy and the potentially disastrous impact looming for its pensioners could serve as the bargaining chip cities facing similar issues need in order to force their unions to come to some sort of compromise regarding ruinous pension and health care payouts. This could prevent a number of cities from repeating Detroit's mistakes, which could inject some much needed confidence back into the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market.

????Detroit has been a fiscal basket case for decades, thanks to a toxic brew of bad governance, high crime, and a shrinking population. No other city best embodies the death of U.S. manufacturing than that of Motor City with its abandoned lots, shuttered schools, and rickety infrastructure. So when the city filed for bankruptcy protection last week, few were surprised.

????Detroit's bankruptcy filing has inevitably led to a flurry of comparisons with other municipalities, which have recently either defaulted on their debt or filed for bankruptcy. But such comparisons are off the mark. Those other cities and towns were pushed into insolvency mainly due to inept spending on city projects or because of drastic changes in property values, neither of which is behind Detroit's fall.

????For example, the city of Harrisburg, Pa., was put into state receivership this year after the city struggled to pay off debts associated with an expensive trash incinerator project that ended up burning up more cash than garbage. Meanwhile, Birmingham, Ala.'s bankruptcy filing came about mainly because of a massive new sewer project that flushed billions of dollars of city cash down the toilet. And then there are the flurry of California municipalities experiencing trouble, like Stockton, Monrovia, Fresno, Mammoth Lakes, and so forth. The main issue there is the sharp drop in property values, which has zapped the revenue side of the city budget.

????Detroit, however, is in hot water for different reasons. Indeed, of all of the city's problems, spending too much on city services isn't one of them. This is, after all, the city where the average police response time is 50 minutes, nearly five times longer than the 11 minute average in other U.S. cities. It is where 40% of its streetlights are inoperable and where in the last five years more than half of its parks have closed. Detroit has an unemployment rate more than twice the national average and only 7% of eighth graders are considered proficient in reading.