中國全速前進

飛機、火車和汽車

如何滿足13億人口及他們所需物資的交通運輸需求？

????中國的繁榮之路可能不僅需要公路的鋪設，而且需要機場與高鐵的建設。

????中國很多經濟目標的實現都要依賴高效的交通運輸：城鎮化使得在城市和農村大力投資交通基礎設施都成為必要的舉措。一些新項目涉及在大城市興建高速公路和地鐵。還有一些道路項目將城鎮與鄉村貫通，使它們融入正在快速壯大的城市交通網絡中。隨著沿海地區逐漸走向現代化，基礎制造業會轉向中西部內陸地區。北京與上海等東部城市正沿著價值鏈向更尖端的產業邁進，中國計劃將更多的發展與貨運項目轉移到相對比較偏遠的西部省份。斥資270億美元在武漢建設內陸港口的計劃就是一個例子。

????中國正在全國范圍內大力推進交通建設，希望能夠借此更好地挖掘正在崛起的中產階層巨大的消費潛力。分析師稱，國內消費對中國經濟的未來起著關鍵作用。相比于依賴向歐美出口廉價商品的路子，擴大內需能讓中國實現更可持續的經濟增長。

????中國很多項目的建設都在我們的意料之中，與美國工業革命（Industrial Revolution）期間的發展模式相似，不同的只是規模大小的差別。2007年，中國還沒有高速鐵路；而如今卻擁有世界上規模最大的高速鐵路網，總里程長達5,800英里。中國計劃到2015年末至少再增建5,400英里的超高速軌道、50個機場以及440個深水船舶泊位。

????考慮到近期中國經濟增速的放緩以及外界對于大興基建導致地方政府債臺高筑有可能引發危機的擔憂情緒，中國的經濟轉型似乎不是那么好駕馭。在2011年至2015年將高速鐵路里程增加一倍的目標也不是那么容易，盡管目前來看這一目標還有望達成。畢馬威政府機構和基建業主管葉偉成稱：“有很多人們認為不可能發生的事情都在中國發生了。”

Planes, trains, and automobiles

How do you transport 1.3 billion people and all their supplies?

????China's path to prosperity may be paved with more than just roads. It's also building airports. And high-speed railways.

????So many of China's economic goals hinge on efficient transport: The shift from rural to urban living has necessitated vast investments in transit, both in cities and the country. Some new projects consist of highways and subway lines built within metropolitan areas. Others will link rural towns and villages, bringing them into the country's rapidly growing urban network. Gradually, as the coasts continue to modernize, basic manufacturing will move further inland. As eastern cities like Beijing and Shanghai rise up the value chain toward more sophisticated industries, China plans to shift more development (and freight) toward its relatively isolated western provinces. Case in point: It's spending $27 billion on an inland port in Wuhan.

????By developing greater connectivity throughout the country, China hopes it will be better able to tap into the vast spending potential of its rising middle class. Domestic consumption, analysts say, is the key to the future of the Chinese economy. By focusing inward, China will be able to create more sustainable growth than it would by peddling low-cost exports to the U.S. and Europe.

????Much of the construction is what you might expect -- the development patterns echo the U.S. during the Industrial Revolution. What's different is the scale. In 2007, China had no high-speed rail; today it has the world's largest high-speed network, with 5,800 miles of track. The country plans to construct at least 5,400 more miles of superfast track, plus at least 50 additional airports and 440 deep-water berths for ships by the end of 2015.

????Given the recent slowdown and fears over repercussions from infrastructure-induced government debt, managing that kind of economic redirection may seem tricky. But then again, so does doubling the country's length of high-speed rail between 2011 and 2015 -- and that goal is on track so far. Says Stephen Ip, KPMG China's lead partner for government and infrastructure: "A lot of things happen in China that you don't think could."