華爾街應回歸簡單

????上周，我們對Virtual投資組合做了幾項簡單調整，現在需要告知讀者我們的最新頭寸：

????1. 通過交易所交易基金GREK做空希臘——隨著希臘債務重組的“積極”利好成為明日黃花，如今希臘股市必須面對緊縮的壓力以及國民的紛紛出逃。

????2. 通過交易所交易基金SPY做空標準普爾500指數——在我們的超買線上賣出標準普爾500指數，有很高的歷史成功率，在1,401點的點位上標準普爾500指數已經超買了。是的，就這么簡單。

????3. 通過交易所交易基金XLY做空可選消費品——油價和通脹的持續上漲不利于經濟增長和可選消費品消費。從歷史數據看，當用油成本升至GDP的5.5%時，經濟增速放緩。簡單說，布倫特原油價格為116美元，相當于用油成本占GDP的5.5%；而如今的布倫特原油價格已經高達123美元。

????一如美國著名詩人亨利?沃茲沃思?朗費羅所言，“無論是個性、方式和風格，還是其他所有事物，最高境界都是簡單。”確實如此。

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????Last week, we made a couple of simple moves in the Virtual Portfolio that should inform you on our current positioning:

?? 1. Shorted Greece via the ETF GREK – With "positive" catalyst of the Greek debt restructuring in the rear view mirror, Greek equities now have to deal with austerity headwinds and a population that is leaving Greece en masse.

????2. Shorted SP500 via the ETF SPY – Selling the SP500 at our overbought line has a high historical batting average and at 1,401, the SP500 is overbought. Yes, it can be that simple.

????3. Shorted consumer discretionary via the ETF XLY – With oil prices and inflation accelerating, this isn't good for growth or discretionary spending. Historically, growth slows when oil reaches 5.5% of GDP. Simplistically, a Brent oil price of $116 equates to 5.5% GDP and Brent is currently at $123.

????Henry Wadsworth Longfellow also had a great quote about simplicity, which was: "In character, in manner, in style, in all things, the supreme excellence is simplicity." Indeed.