美女分析師市政債務危機預言成真

????“美國各州都定期發行債券，因此他們非常在意自身的債券評級，會盡可能地阻止公眾關注他們的危機，”惠特尼稱。“他們甚至已經讓一些城市進入破產管理，以免自身破產。但市政機構只是偶爾發行債券。相比債券市場的評級，他們更關注自身真切的痛苦。”

????阿拉巴馬州的杰斐遜縣事實上已破產。加利福尼亞州的斯托克頓很快也要走上同樣的道路。如今，只要看看底特律——或者附近任何以某款別克（Buick）車型命名的汽車市鎮——就可以看到正在上演的財政危機。看看你自家的后院，或者社區周邊道路上的坑凹，可能也會產生同樣的感覺。

????我們來看看3月7日我收到的前紐約州議員理查德?布勞德斯基發來的電子郵件吧，內容是關于揚克斯市長邁克?斯班諾最近組建了一個調查委員會，負責調查布勞德斯基所述的該市正在“分崩離析”。（布勞德斯基在該委員會就職。）

????“（揚克斯）預算約10億美元，未來一年的預算缺口看來很難填上。原因很多。和很多城鎮中心一樣，揚克斯的制造基地已經衰落，很多中產階級已經搬離，人們根本不能負擔房地產和銷售稅負擔。抵觸稅收的情緒上升，當選官員拒絕上調經常性稅收。幾年來，通過一些手法、一次性做法、借錢周轉、出售資產以及各種各樣的變通之道‘暫時延緩了問題的出現’……但如今這個城市已無計可施了。”

????他接下來說的話聽起來很像惠特尼：“這就好像我們站在岸邊，目睹一場海嘯正在形成，但我們只是聳聳肩，希望能夠安然過關……我們必須改變這種心態，如果高危城市的名單越來越長，將演變成為一個全國性的問題。（目前） 關于聯邦政府規模和稅賦高低的爭議還只是局限于全美中小城鎮的街道，學生、拾荒者、消防和治安之間將互相爭奪匱乏的資源。用這種方式來解決問題太難看了。”

????2月底，惠特尼簽署了一項協議，打算就這一問題寫一本書，盡管她的債市預測確實失敗了。書名《下調評級：下一場經濟危機將是地方危機》（Downgraded: Why the Next Economic Crisis Will Be Local），計劃11月份出版。

????如今的惠特尼已經沒有興趣再討論她在《60分鐘》中的預言，她要有興趣才怪。但有一點不容辯駁，一個著名的聲音成功地喚起了人們的注意，讓人們更多地關注到了一個真實而緊迫的問題，同時改變了人們關注的話題。2010年新當選的36位州長聽到了這一聲音，或者說，至少有幾位聽到了——比如新澤西州的克里斯?克里斯蒂、佛羅里達州的瑞克?斯考特和印第安納州的米切?丹尼爾斯——但他們和他們的繼任者在接下來很多年里都必須奉行審慎的財政政策。

????我曾和惠特尼詳細討論，并不止一次地指出，她在電視節目上說的太細了，這是一項失誤。她不同意。但在一件事情上我們的看法是一致的，即繼續對這段二十多個字的預測“吹毛求疵”無異于只見樹木不見森林。“看看希臘，”她說。“他們沒有出現技術意義上的違約。但它出現了歷史上最大規模的主權債務減記行為，這個事實無法改變。兩者的實質是一樣的。”

????譯者：早稻米

????"States are regular bond market issuers, so they do care about their debt ratings, and have done everything they can to prevent public attention focusing on their crises," Whitney says. "They've even taken cities into receivership to prevent them from going bankrupt. But municipalities are only occasional issuers. They're much less concerned with bond market ratings than with the real pain they're already suffering."

????Alabama's Jefferson County has actually gone bankrupt. Stockton, California is all but ready to do the same. And all you have to do is look to Detroit—or any of the nearby auto towns named after a Buick model of one sort or another—and you see fiscal crisis playing out right now. Look in your own backyard—or at the potholes on your neighborhood roads—and you will likely find the same.

????Consider the email I received on March 7 from former New York State Assemblyman Richard Brodsky about Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano's recently formed Commission of Inquiry into what he refers to as that city's "Great Unraveling." (Brodksy is serving on the commission.)

????"[Yonkers has] a budget of about $1 billion and a budget gap in the upcoming year that looks like it can't be bridged. There are reasons aplenty. Like may urban centers the Yonkers manufacturing base disappeared, the middle-class moved out and the people simply can't afford the property and sales tax burden that ensured. Anti-tax fervor hit and elected officials refused to raise recurring revenues. Gimmicks, one-shots, borrowing for operating expenses, assets sales, and assorted maneuvers 'kicked the can down the road' for a couple of years…The city has now run out of gimmicks."

????And then he sounds very Whitney-like: "It's as though we stand on the shore and watch a tsunami gather and shrug and hope we'll get through it…That needs to change, and if the list of endangered cities gets larger this will force itself onto the national stage. [For now] the great national battle about the size of government and the level of taxation will be played out in the streets of small cities across America, with school kids, garbage pick-up, fire-protection, and safe streets competing with each other for inadequate resources. It's an ugly way to solve a problem."

????In late February, Whitney signed a deal to write a book about the trouble that isn't going anywhere, even if her bond-market prediction was a misfire. Titled Downgraded: Why the Next Economic Crisis Will Be Local, it's on a fast turnaround for November publication.

????Whitney isn't that interested in talking about her words on 60 Minutes anymore—why would she be?—but it's hard to argue with the fact that a prominent voice succeeded in bringing more focus to a real and pressing issue and helped change the conversation. Thirty-six freshly elected governors were listening in 2010. Or at least a few were—the likes of New Jersey's Chris Christie, Florida's Rick Scott, and Indiana's Mitch Daniels—but they and their successors are going to be playing the fiscal prudence game for years to come.

????I have argued at length and one more than one occasion with Whitney that she made a mistake when she got too precise on TV. She doesn't agree. But we do find common ground about the fact that continuing to play "Gotcha!" over those 20 or so words is missing the forest for the trees. "Look at Greece," she says. "They're not in technical default. That doesn't change the fact that it's the biggest sovereign debt writedown in history. It's all the same in the end."